Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:41:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BA 0xbaa8…7f0d crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$7 (-19%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$5
sports 31% +$2
other 11% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +63.9% +48.3% 100% 100% +48.3%
≤30d 2 -18.1% -25.9% 50% 50% -62.6%
≤90d 4 -59.0% -62.9% 25% 25% -78.8%
all 16 -28.8% -35.6% 38% 25% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.6% 25% -29.0%
10% -41.8% 19% -35.8%
15% -47.4% 19% -42.0%
20% -52.5% 19% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage124d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 78¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card) Rob Font 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Jirí Procházka 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
FC Barcelona leading at halftime? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1 +$1 +64%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 10 $2 −$2 -98%
FC Barcelona leading at halftime? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 10 $3 +$5 +178%
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Feb 18 $2 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 18 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Feb 18 $2 −$1 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 18 $4 −$1 -16%
Solana Up or Down - February 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 10 $2 +$3 +121%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $2 10m
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $1 1h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 15d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car BUY Jirí Procházka 51¢ $2 65d
FC Barcelona leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 71d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Charles Oliveira 36¢ $3 98d
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card) BUY Rob Font 27¢ $2 98d
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 116d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $2 116d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 116d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $2 116d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 116d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $2 116d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 116d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 116d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 116d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 116d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 116d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 116d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 116d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 116d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $3 116d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 116d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 116d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 116d
Solana Up or Down - February 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 116d
Solana Up or Down - February 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 116d
Solana Up or Down - February 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.96 · official $2.96 (match) · 37 history records