Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbaa8…645b crypto 843 markets active 4d ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (309 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24,850 (-58%) realized −$24,850 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%319W / 592L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day308.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,841
sports 1% +$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (309 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 657 -59.0% -62.9% 19% 18% -57.3%
≤30d 911 -29.1% -35.8% 35% 33% -14.5%
≤90d 911 -29.1% -35.8% 35% 33% -14.5%
all 911 -29.1% -35.8% 35% 33% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover308.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.8% 33% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -42.0% 31% -22.7%
15% -47.6% 27% -30.1%
20% -52.7% 22% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$28 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24,850
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses319 / 592
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)911 / 843
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day308.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 911 Trades
no open positions (268 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$61 +615%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$10 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records