Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:14:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbaa5…e2d8 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$19 (-6%) realized −$10 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%16W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$23
world 8% +$5
other 6% −$5
finance 6% +$3
politics 5% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -34.9% -41.1% 50% 50% +2.6%
≤90d 32 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 41% -17.0%
all 32 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 41% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 41% -17.0%
10% -17.9% 28% -24.9%
15% -25.8% 9% -32.2%
20% -33.1% 9% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage88d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $213 $204 −$9 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during C May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30? May 23 $15 +$4 +30%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? May 02 $3 +$1 +32%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 21 $2 +$3 +134%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 21 $3 +$1 +23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $3 +$2 +63%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 20 $8 $0 +5%
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026? Apr 20 $4 −$1 -27%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $7 +$2 +27%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $1 $0 +14%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 11 $1 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 09 $3 $0 +16%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 08 $3 $0 -12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 07 $5 +$1 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 07 $2 $0 -15%
Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5? Apr 06 $1 $0 +16%
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026 Apr 05 $4 +$1 +27%
SHL: Roegle vs. Faerjestad Apr 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in April? Apr 05 $2 −$1 -41%
Will Solana reach $80 in April? Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? Apr 04 $1 $0 -21%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 04 $5 −$4 -71%
Will XRP reach $1.40 in April? Apr 03 $2 $0 -25%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.10 in April? Apr 03 $2 −$1 -57%
Will BNB reach $600 in April? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -95%
Will "XO, Kitty Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week? Apr 03 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Hyperliquid reach $36 in April? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $2 $0 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 01 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
BitBoy convicted? Mar 31 $1 +$5 +497%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $99 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 10h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $55 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $54 2d
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during C BUY No 43¢ $2 18d
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? SELL No 69¢ $3 54d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 54d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $2 55d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $3 55d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 65¢ $8 56d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 56d
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026? SELL No 56¢ $3 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? BUY No 55¢ $3 60d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? SELL No 78¢ $7 60d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 61d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY No 57¢ $5 62d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 62d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 78¢ $7 64d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? SELL No 72¢ $1 64d
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? SELL No 95¢ $1 65d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 74¢ $3 66d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $3 67d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $3 68d
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $4 68d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? SELL No 89¢ $6 68d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 53¢ $2 68d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 56¢ $1 68d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? SELL No 51¢ $2 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY No 63¢ $1 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.84 · official $203.84 (match) · 76 history records