Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:02:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xbaa4…b0f3 crypto 915 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$199 (-2%) realized −$199 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%634W / 280L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day45.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$122
14 days−$248
30 days−$327
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$327
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 235 -4.7% -13.8% 63% 63% -13.1%
≤30d 914 -3.4% -12.6% 69% 69% -12.7%
≤90d 914 -3.4% -12.6% 69% 69% -12.7%
all 914 -3.4% -12.6% 69% 69% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 69% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 61% -21.0%
15% -28.6% 37% -28.6%
20% -35.6% 13% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$199
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses634 / 280
Open positions0
Markets (closed)914 / 915
History coverage20d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day45.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 914 Trades
no open positions (275 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$17 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$8 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$10 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$7 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$8 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$13 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$7 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$13 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $15 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $15 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $23 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $15 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $15 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $15 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $15 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $15 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $15 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1555 history records