trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 12 | $35,110 | −$11,729 | -33% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $1,008 | +$282 | +28% |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? | Jun 12 | $2,289 | +$935 | +41% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $6,500 | +$6,222 | +96% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Jun 11 | $16,070 | −$1,460 | -9% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 11 | $13,252 | −$1,650 | -12% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 11 | $32,798 | +$22,518 | +69% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 10 | $8,820 | −$5,146 | -58% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 08 | $976 | +$215 | +22% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 07 | $27,589 | −$18,985 | -69% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 07 | $176 | −$102 | -58% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 07 | $2,038 | +$643 | +32% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | Jun 01 | $16,740 | −$15,741 | -94% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | Jun 01 | $1,962 | −$964 | -49% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | Jun 01 | $13,359 | −$11,210 | -84% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $20,000 | +$52,320 | +262% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | Jun 01 | $1,735 | +$145 | +8% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | Jun 01 | $165,882 | +$79,750 | +48% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 01 | $103,244 | +$15,535 | +15% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | May 30 | $5,920 | −$4,685 | -79% |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | May 29 | $2,000 | +$1,043 | +52% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 12 | +3.9% | -6.0% | 50% | 50% | -14.6% |
| ≤30d | 21 | +6.0% | -4.1% | 52% | 48% | +10.9% |
| ≤90d | 21 | +6.0% | -4.1% | 52% | 48% | +10.9% |
| all | 21 | +6.0% | -4.1% | 52% | 48% | +10.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -4.1% | 48% | +10.9% |
| 10% | -13.3% | 38% | +0.3% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -21.7% | 29% | -9.4% |
| 20% | -29.3% | 19% | -18.3% |