Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:31:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BA 0xba9d…46ef crypto 1349 markets active 3h ago coverage 88d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,404 (-7%) realized −$3,413 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%761W / 714L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$939now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 88d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$28
other 4% +$154
sports 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 321 -55.5% -59.7% 23% 22% -64.4%
≤30d 724 -19.5% -27.1% 42% 42% -33.0%
≤90d 1475 -7.8% -16.6% 52% 48% -19.5%
all 1475 -7.8% -16.6% 52% 48% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 48% -19.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 44% -27.2%
15% -31.9% 39% -34.3%
20% -38.5% 35% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$31 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$939
Realized−$3,413
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses761 / 714
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1475 / 1349
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$38
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1475 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $200 $271 +$71 (+35%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $200 $187 −$13 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $200 $168 −$32 (-16%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Rockets vs. Kings Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Nets vs. 76ers Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $147 −$147 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $430 −$430 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$19 -356%
Nuggets vs. Celtics Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $139 −$139 -100%
Suns vs. Grizzlies Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $192 −$192 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 46¢ $68 3h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $303 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $81 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $6 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $939.27 · official $939.27 (match) · 3500 history records