Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:06:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba8e…a62b other 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$203 (-5%) realized −$95 · open −$108
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%51W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$567now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$153
7 days+$277
14 days−$168
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$288
sports 26% −$66
crypto 14% −$20
world 2% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +2.1% -7.7% 44% 44% +15.6%
≤30d 78 -9.6% -18.2% 38% 38% -7.5%
≤90d 98 -28.0% -34.9% 31% 31% -20.6%
all 139 -21.8% -29.3% 37% 35% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 35% -15.5%
10% -36.0% 31% -23.6%
15% -42.2% 29% -31.0%
20% -47.9% 27% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$20 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$567
Realized−$95
Unrealized−$108
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses51 / 88
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions12
Markets (closed)139 / 151
History coverage162d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $105 $117 +$12 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $86 $94 +$8 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $93 $80 −$13 (-14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $50 $71 +$22 (+43%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 13¢ $38 $59 +$22 (+57%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $79 $51 −$28 (-35%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Over 35¢ 10¢ $137 $41 −$96 (-70%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $21 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $32 $19 −$13 (-40%)
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 32¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 28¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $92 +$43 +47%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $18 +$9 +51%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $28 −$10 -36%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $246 +$217 +88%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $139 −$136 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $12 +$3 +24%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $32 −$31 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $56 +$63 +112%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $14 +$14 +94%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $3 $0 +12%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -23%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2 +$2 +88%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Harry Kane record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 19 $3 −$1 -24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +56%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $46 +$25 +54%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11 −$9 -86%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -8%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$4 +88%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2 +$3 +156%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $20 +$11 +56%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 +$6 +234%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 +$46 +224%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $39 +$74 +189%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $38 +$88 +231%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $54 −$53 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $341 −$335 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $33 −$33 -98%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $73 +$64 +87%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 +$30 +242%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $141 1h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $21 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $18 3h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 4h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 4h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 4h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 4h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $41 5h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 5h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 19h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 19h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 19h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $31 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $463 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 20h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 20h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $102 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $102 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 23h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $15 23h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $123 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $567.23 · official $567.23 (match) · 427 history records