Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:38:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba8a…b772 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3,357 (-13%) realized −$3,316 · open −$41
Gross ROI / mkt +145% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +104% what you keep after slip
Net edge+104%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,728per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$2,959now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,843
7 days−$3,723
14 days−$3,723
30 days−$4,061
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$6,941
sports 23% +$2,497
other 19% +$341
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+121.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +157.8% +133.2% 42% 42% -30.9%
≤30d 13 +144.8% +121.5% 38% 38% -29.4%
≤90d 13 +144.8% +121.5% 38% 38% -29.4%
all 13 +144.8% +121.5% 38% 38% -29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +121.5% 38% -29.4%
10% +100.3% 38% -36.1%
15% +80.9% 38% -42.3%
20% +63.2% 38% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +145% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late +314% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$981 vs −$1,121 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$2,959
Realized−$3,316
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage30d
Avg bet$1,728
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 61¢ 60¢ $2,000 $1,967 −$33 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1,000 $991 −$9 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $1,215 +$903 +74%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $306 −$279 -91%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $1,012 +$674 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,217 −$1,217 -100%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $307 +$943 +307%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 27 $11,985 −$6,603 -55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,216 +$963 +79%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $306 −$229 -75%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $2,025 +$1,420 +70%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang May 30 $2,990 −$338 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 61¢ $2,023 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,103 2h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes $21 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,686 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1,012 8h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $307 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,217 24h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes $142 24h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $306 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,215 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,180 24h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes $78 24h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $203 2d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,013 2d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $3,445 2d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes $103 3d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 3d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes $103 3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $2,025 3d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 27d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 24¢ $391 27d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 23¢ $144 27d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 23¢ $618 27d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 24¢ $36 27d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 23¢ $5,204 27d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 22¢ $5,240 27d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,958.86 · official $2,958.59 (match) · 104 history records