Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:19:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba87…8341 other 254 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 246L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$36
sports 22% −$20
politics 8% −$11
crypto 7% −$5
culture 6% −$5
world 5% −$4
economics 5% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 78 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 198 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 254 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)254 / 254
History coverage128d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 254 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $90 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $118 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $172 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $341 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $87 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $213 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $377 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $356 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $279 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $418 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $598 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $211 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $141 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $389 −$2 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $155 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $92 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $179 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $345 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $88 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $311 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $152 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $210 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $120 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $141 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $229 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $170 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $162 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $235 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $186 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $246 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $672 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $99 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $48 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $233 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $142 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $684 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $42 1h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $42 3h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $42 4h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $43 5h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $43 7h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $43 9h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $43 10h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $43 12h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $43 13h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 15h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $43 16h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $43 18h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 26h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 27h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $43 29h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $43 31h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $43 31h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $43 32h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 35h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 36h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 38h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 40h
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $34 41h
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $34 43h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $44 44h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $44 44h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 47h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $44 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $44 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1379 history records