Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:40:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xba87…224f other 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 636d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$80 (+0%) realized +$80 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate23%16W / 53L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 69% −$14
other 14% +$21
politics 10% −$6
sports 3% +$77
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +12.5% +1.8% 25% 12% -5.2%
≤30d 19 +5.2% -4.8% 11% 5% -8.5%
≤90d 54 +6.8% -3.4% 20% 15% -8.2%
all 69 +7.3% -3.0% 23% 13% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 13% -9.2%
10% -12.2% 13% -17.9%
15% -20.7% 13% -25.8%
20% -28.5% 13% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×6.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

636d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses16 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage636d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $76 $76 +$0 (+0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 +$13 +101%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $27 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $34 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $156 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 24 $319 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $153 $0 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $149 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $11 +$18 +165%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $143 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $134 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $286 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $142 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $145 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $286 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $274 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $136 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $136 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $137 $0 -0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Apr 22 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $137 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $138 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $149 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $283 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $140 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $4 +$7 +165%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $18 +$11 +62%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $9 +$5 +52%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $13 +$1 +10%
Bruins vs. Panthers Apr 06 $18 −$18 -100%
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 172.5 Apr 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 3h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $28 26h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $28 27h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $76 3d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 4d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 49¢ $12 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 4d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $22 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 7d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $46 9d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 10d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 10d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 11d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 12d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 15d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 17d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 17d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.42 · official $122.42 (match) · 313 history records