Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:35:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BA 0xba86…b9a5 crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$34 (-2%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate64%18W / 10L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +1.4% -8.3% 64% 43% +3.7%
≤30d 28 +1.4% -8.3% 64% 43% +3.7%
≤90d 28 +1.4% -8.3% 64% 43% +3.7%
all 28 +1.4% -8.3% 64% 43% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 43% +3.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 36% -6.2%
15% -25.1% 32% -15.3%
20% -32.4% 18% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$26 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses18 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $223 +$234 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $278 +$18 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $176 +$22 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $83 −$83 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 26 $40 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $40 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $124 +$46 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 26 $58 −$36 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $41 −$27 -66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$9 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$8 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$7 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$21 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $41 −$9 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$3 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$6 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$33 +159%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$38 +182%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$13 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $223 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $40 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $40 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $197 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $176 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $41 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $41 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $40 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $152 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $41 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $41 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $18 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $41 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $40 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $37 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $20 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $21 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $7 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $8 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $12 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $21 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $21 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records