Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:34:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba86…305e world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate44%18W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$8
other 17% −$19
sports 1% +$5
politics 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.4% -8.2% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 27 +1.2% -8.4% 33% 4% -9.3%
≤90d 31 -2.2% -11.5% 32% 3% -9.5%
all 41 -2.7% -12.0% 44% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 5% -9.7%
10% -20.4% 5% -18.3%
15% -28.1% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses18 / 23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage490d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 47¢ 47¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 53¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $73 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $11 +$1 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $43 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $93 −$3 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $63 +$2 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $27 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $546 +$4 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $92 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $42 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $88 −$9 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $44 −$6 -13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $42 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $47 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $7 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $49 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $52 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $49 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $47 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $37 +$18 +47%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $118 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $285 −$4 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $274 $0 +0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $248 +$1 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump post 220 or more times March 14-21? Mar 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in February? Mar 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring? Mar 11 $18 $0 -0%
Indiana vs. Oregon Mar 11 $13 +$5 +35%
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.9% on Februar Mar 03 $12 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $21 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $36 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $30 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 10¢ $6 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $43 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $32 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $11 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $24 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $20 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $5 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $43 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $43 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $24 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $24 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $0 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $22 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $21 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.53 · official $15.51 (match) · 159 history records