Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:46:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xba86…a66a sports 234 markets active 2h ago coverage 870d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5,016 (+14%) realized +$4,999 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate68%157W / 75L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$69
14 days−$57
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% +$6,250
other 24% −$113
sports 23% −$969
crypto 16% −$198
finance 1% +$32
economics 1% +$12
world 0% +$9
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +30.6% +18.2% 100% 100% +15.7%
≤30d 9 +13.6% +2.8% 78% 78% -6.2%
≤90d 50 -3.1% -12.3% 64% 64% -25.2%
all 232 +5.1% -4.9% 68% 58% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 58% +3.5%
10% -14.0% 46% -6.4%
15% -22.3% 34% -15.5%
20% -29.9% 22% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$93 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

870d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized+$4,999
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses157 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)232 / 234
History coverage870d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? No 76¢ 84¢ $169 $186 +$17 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $147 +$23 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $127 −$126 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $30 +$8 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 +$7 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $30 +$7 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $25 +$7 +29%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $49 +$78 +158%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $99 +$18 +18%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $494 +$91 +18%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $167 −$166 -99%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $20 +$14 +71%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $20 +$5 +23%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $20 +$8 +41%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $40 +$10 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main C May 02 $20 +$3 +16%
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai May 02 $20 +$6 +29%
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card) May 02 $20 +$11 +53%
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim May 02 $41 −$20 -49%
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main C May 02 $20 +$40 +194%
UFC Fight Night: Karine Silva vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (Women's Flywei Apr 19 $20 +$9 +45%
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Ma Apr 19 $20 +$15 +76%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 19 $40 +$16 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) Apr 19 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $79 −$78 -98%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $50 +$29 +58%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $25 −$25 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $142 −$142 -100%
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $20 +$8 +41%
UFC 327: Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown (Welterweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $20 +$17 +86%
UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $25 −$25 -98%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $26 −$25 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci (Women's Strawweigh Apr 05 $11 +$9 +85%
UFC Fight Night: Ethyn Ewing vs. Rafael Estevam (Bantamweight, Main Ca Apr 05 $10 +$10 +100%
UFC Fight Night: Brendson Ribeiro vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light He Apr 05 $18 +$2 +11%
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight Apr 05 $25 −$25 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Apr 05 $107 −$107 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber (Women's Flyweight, Ma Apr 05 $19 −$19 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Jose Delano vs. Robert Ruchala (Featherweight, Prelim Apr 05 $20 +$11 +54%
UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Preli Apr 05 $10 +$10 +101%
UFC Fight Night: Michael Chiesa vs. Niko Price (Welterweight, Main Car Mar 29 $26 +$4 +14%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 29 $62 −$62 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prel Mar 29 $20 +$7 +38%
UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Mar 29 $29 +$16 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $170 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 86¢ $147 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $99 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $38 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 100¢ $38 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $88 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $30 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $30 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $30 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $30 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 99¢ $33 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $25 11d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 38¢ $49 26d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 90¢ $117 32d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 84¢ $99 39d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 84¢ $494 40d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 81¢ $167 47d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C SELL Alexander Volkov 99¢ $35 47d
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) SELL King Green 99¢ $25 47d
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) SELL Grant Dawson 100¢ $29 47d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Tatsuro Taira 61¢ $20 47d
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY King Green 80¢ $20 47d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Joaquin Buckley 65¢ $20 47d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Alexander Volkov 57¢ $20 47d
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Grant Dawson 70¢ $20 47d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY No 77¢ $101 47d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? BUY No 79¢ $40 49d
UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main C SELL Marwan Rahiki 100¢ $23 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.83 · official $183.61 · 524 history records