Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BA 0xba85…8016 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$96 (-3%) realized −$96 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%32W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$6
sports 25% +$2
crypto 12% +$1
world 10% $0
politics 9% +$1
tech 6% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 33 -2.8% -12.0% 97% 0% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -12.0%
10% -20.5% 0% -20.4%
15% -28.1% 0% -28.1%
20% -35.2% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$107 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses32 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage230d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $125 $124 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$130 on the final day of trading of Jun 12 $114 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$130 on the final day of trading of the Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $60-$70 on the final day of trading of th May 15 $123 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 4 above $130? May 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 4 above $120? May 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April? May 06 $123 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$60 on the final day of trading of the w Apr 29 $123 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 21 $122 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $140 end of March? Apr 03 $122 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in March? Mar 29 $122 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 16 above $700? Mar 21 $122 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 20 $121 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w Mar 09 $121 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w Mar 02 $121 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w Feb 24 $120 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Feb 16 $238 +$1 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 2 above $20? Feb 09 $120 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of January 19 above $500? Jan 27 $119 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? Jan 23 $118 +$1 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of January 12 above $30? Jan 18 $118 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 12 $115 +$2 +1%
Will Solana reach $200 December 29-January 4? Jan 06 $116 $0 +0%
Will SOL flip ETH in 2025? Jan 01 $116 $0 +0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 20? Dec 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 21 $100 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? Dec 03 $115 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 19 $108 $0 +0%
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025? Nov 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 12 $103 $0 +0%
Will BigFuture School be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Nove Nov 06 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Anthropic’s Claude 4.5 Sonnet win the NOF1.ai competition? Nov 06 $101 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $124 1h
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$130 on the final day of trading of BUY No 100¢ $14 9d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$130 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$130 on the final day of trading of BUY No 100¢ $100 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $88 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $123 31d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $60-$70 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 100¢ $123 35d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 4 above $120? BUY No 100¢ $23 44d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 4 above $130? BUY No 100¢ $100 44d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $123 51d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$60 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $123 59d
Trump out as President by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $122 59d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $122 77d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $140 end of March? BUY No 100¢ $122 82d
Will Solana dip to $30 in March? SELL No 100¢ $122 82d
Will Solana dip to $30 in March? BUY No 100¢ $122 90d
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 16 above $700? BUY No 100¢ $22 90d
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 16 above $700? BUY No 100¢ $100 91d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $121 91d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $121 102d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $121 109d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $121 115d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $120 119d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $120 123d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $119 130d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 2 above $20? BUY Yes 100¢ $120 138d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $119 139d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 96¢ $119 143d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of January 19 above $500? BUY No 100¢ $119 147d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.44 · official $124.44 (match) · 76 history records