Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:49:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BA 0xba82…df47 other 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,087 (+4%) realized +$1,085 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate82%74W / 16L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$64
14 days+$90
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 28% −$28
other 28% +$706
politics 17% +$105
world 13% +$157
crypto 7% +$9
sports 4% +$20
finance 3% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +58.5% +43.4% 88% 62% +19.4%
≤30d 13 +48.0% +33.9% 85% 69% +11.8%
≤90d 33 +22.7% +11.0% 82% 58% -4.9%
all 90 +8.2% -2.1% 82% 38% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 38% -5.5%
10% -11.5% 18% -14.6%
15% -20.0% 14% -22.8%
20% -27.9% 8% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$80 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized+$1,085
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses74 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions8
Markets (closed)90 / 100
History coverage244d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $32 $46 +$14 (+43%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 79¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $32 $21 −$11 (-34%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $23 $20 −$2 (-10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $10 +$2 (+26%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $7 −$4 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 28 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 +$16 +62%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $91 +$5 +5%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 25 $10 +$24 +235%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 25 $10 +$15 +148%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$7 +70%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $15 +$7 +44%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $35 +$15 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 +$22 +109%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $50 +$27 +54%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 21 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 19 $51 +$3 +5%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? May 19 $50 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Will MegaETH launch a token by September 30, 2026? May 03 $9 +$1 +11%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? May 03 $90 +$10 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 03 $160 +$40 +25%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? May 03 $140 +$60 +43%
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 03 $342 +$58 +17%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? May 03 $160 −$160 -100%
MegaETH FDV above $600M one day after launch? May 01 $90 +$10 +11%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 25 $500 +$10 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 14 $53 +$6 +11%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $1,000 $0 +0%
Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1? Apr 02 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in March? Apr 01 $10 $0 +5%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in March? Apr 01 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $180 +$20 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 01 $190 +$10 +5%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 28 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Mar 24 $120 +$5 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 04 $150 +$10 +7%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Mar 03 $95 +$5 +5%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 27 $162 +$4 +2%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Feb 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading? Feb 27 $190 +$10 +5%
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics Feb 23 $346 +$54 +16%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 23 $450 +$50 +11%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 22 $1,136 +$7 +1%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 mil Feb 17 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 mil Feb 17 $70 +$30 +43%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 mil Feb 17 $80 +$20 +25%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 700k? Feb 17 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Feb 17 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Feb 12 $100 +$2 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Feb 12 $196 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 38m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,046 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $31 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $40 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 45h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Brazil leading at halftime? BUY 29¢ $10 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil leading at halftime? BUY 40¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,028 4d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $10 4d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 58¢ $10 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY 30¢ $5 5d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 20¢ $5 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 12d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 70¢ $35 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $20 19d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 78¢ $77 20d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 22d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 22d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 22d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 22d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 22d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 29d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 31d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 92¢ $46 37d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.88 · official $167.88 (match) · 402 history records