Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:19:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xba7f…323a sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$158 (+2%) realized +$162 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$392per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$259now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$98
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$137
world 32% +$5
other 14% −$1
politics 4% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.4% -7.3% 100% 0% -7.3%
≤30d 14 +2.2% -7.5% 50% 0% -7.5%
≤90d 16 +8.2% -2.1% 50% 6% -7.4%
all 16 +8.2% -2.1% 50% 6% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 6% -7.4%
10% -11.5% 6% -16.3%
15% -20.0% 6% -24.3%
20% -27.9% 6% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$4 · ×4.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.83 per $1 lost it wins $12.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$259
Realized+$162
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage86d
Avg bet$392
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $263 $259 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? Jun 19 $257 +$6 +2%
Spread: Moldova (-1.5) Jun 10 $473 +$24 +5%
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? Jun 09 $471 −$1 -0%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $471 +$24 +5%
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? Jun 07 $471 $0 +0%
Spread: Armenia (-2.5) Jun 07 $461 +$39 +8%
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $469 −$6 -1%
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) Jun 06 $463 +$12 +3%
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $463 $0 +0%
Spread: Albania (-2.5) Jun 04 $469 +$24 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $468 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? Jun 02 $460 $0 +0%
Spread: Nice (-2.5) May 28 $452 +$18 +4%
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by June 30, 2026? May 26 $460 $0 +0%
Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30 Apr 19 $14 +$15 +107%
Dubrovnik: Anhelina Kalinina vs Nuria Brancaccio Mar 26 $73 −$5 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $263 1h
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $263 21h
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $257 23h
Spread: Moldova (-1.5) BUY Armenia 95¢ $473 10d
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $470 11d
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $471 11d
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $471 13d
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $471 13d
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $471 13d
Spread: Armenia (-2.5) BUY Kazakhstan 92¢ $461 13d
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $9 13d
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $454 13d
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $469 13d
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) BUY Slovenia 97¢ $463 16d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $463 16d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $463 16d
Spread: Albania (-2.5) BUY Israel 95¢ $469 16d
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $468 16d
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $468 16d
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $460 17d
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $460 17d
Spread: Nice (-2.5) BUY Saint-Etienne 96¢ $452 24d
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $460 24d
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $460 24d
Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30 SELL Yes $1 62d
Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30 SELL Yes $14 62d
Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30 SELL Yes $15 62d
Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30 BUY Yes $7 62d
Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30 BUY Yes $7 62d
Dubrovnik: Anhelina Kalinina vs Nuria Brancaccio SELL Anhelina Kalinina 80¢ $38 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $259.00 · official $259.00 (match) · 38 history records