Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

BA 0xba7b…6370 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$25 (+1%) realized +$27 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%6W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$448per market

Trades / day5.8pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$998now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-8.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+1.0%	-8.6%	100%	0%	-8.5%
≤30d	6	+1.0%	-8.6%	100%	0%	-8.5%
≤90d	6	+1.0%	-8.6%	100%	0%	-8.5%
all	6	+1.0%	-8.6%	100%	0%	-8.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.6%	0%	-8.5%
10%	-17.3%	0%	-17.3%
15%	-25.3%	0%	-25.3%
20%	-32.6%	0%	-32.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 66% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$998

Realized+$27

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses6 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$448

Trades / day5.8

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia?	No	99¢	98¢	$1,000	$998	−$2 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic?	Jun 19	$550	+$7	+1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5	Jun 19	$498	+$1	+0%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Qatar?	Jun 19	$100	+$1	+1%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar?	Jun 19	$447	+$9	+2%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$441	+$6	+1%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-2.5)	Jun 18	$100	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia?	BUY No	99¢	$1,000	1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	100¢	$498	3h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic?	BUY No	99¢	$550	5h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar?	BUY No	98¢	$447	7h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY No	99¢	$441	14h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Qatar?	BUY No	99¢	$100	24h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-2.5)	BUY Colombia	100¢	$100	30h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $997.97 · official $997.97 (match) · 13 history records