Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:37:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BA 0xba7b…91f5 sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$338 (-20%) realized −$335 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%18W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$568
7 days−$411
14 days−$411
30 days−$411
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$83
other 42% −$241
crypto 3% −$51
world 2% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +12.1% +1.4% 40% 40% -32.3%
≤30d 45 +12.1% +1.4% 40% 40% -32.3%
≤90d 45 +12.1% +1.4% 40% 40% -32.3%
all 45 +12.1% +1.4% 40% 40% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 40% -32.3%
10% -8.3% 40% -38.8%
15% -17.2% 40% -44.7%
20% -25.3% 31% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +83% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$35 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$335
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses18 / 27
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage7d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ 68¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+7%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 55¢ 44¢ $17 $13 −$4 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 +$21 +262%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $58 +$22 +38%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $84 −$44 -53%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $86 −$86 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$32 +40%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 +$31 +76%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$38 +250%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$63 +307%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$34 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $25 +$16 +62%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$18 +226%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$71 +1372%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$38 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 +$22 +73%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 15 $45 −$45 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $46 −$45 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $40 +$27 +67%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ $14 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $17 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 46¢ $1 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $31 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $14 19h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 19h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $30 23h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $50 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $58 37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $86 38h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 41h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $61 43h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $18 43h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $51 46h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $41 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $81 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $14 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $41 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 61¢ $25 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.39 · official $25.26 · 78 history records