Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:14:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba75…837f other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$121 (+13%) realized +$55 · open +$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -77% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate4%2W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$343now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-79.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -79.7% -81.6% 5% 5% -89.0%
≤30d 48 -77.3% -79.4% 4% 4% -87.6%
≤90d 48 -77.3% -79.4% 4% 4% -87.6%
all 48 -77.3% -79.4% 4% 4% -87.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -79.4% 4% -87.6%
10% -81.4% 4% -88.8%
15% -83.2% 4% -89.9%
20% -84.8% 4% -90.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -86% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -77% · $-wt -86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -88% → late -66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$9 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$343
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses2 / 46
Open positions19
Markets (closed)48 / 9
History coverage15d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 6¢ 24¢ $25 $94 +$69 (+269%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 6¢ 20¢ $23 $80 +$57 (+247%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 6¢ 17¢ $23 $69 +$46 (+199%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 5¢ 14¢ $20 $57 +$36 (+177%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $21 $36 +$15 (+68%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $13 $3 −$10 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-88%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $13 $1 −$13 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$6 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$4 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$3 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$3 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $6 +$30 +514%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $6 +$11 +180%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 56m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 11h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 11h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 11h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 11h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 11h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 17h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 19h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 21h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 21h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 22h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 22h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 26h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 27h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 31h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 31h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 35h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 36h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 39h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $21 39h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 41h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $350 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $342.83 · official $342.87 (match) · 57 history records