Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.0
score
BA 0xba73…0cfd other 131 markets active 540d ago coverage 716d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$79,428 (+77%) realized +$79,428 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +81% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +57% what you keep after slip
Net edge+57%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%79W / 52L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$784per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$69,742
culture 3% +$5,159
world 2% +$1,057
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+63.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 131 +80.7% +63.5% 60% 53% +57.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +63.5% 53% +57.3%
10% +47.9% 47% +42.2%
15% +33.6% 44% +28.5%
20% +20.5% 37% +15.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +81% · $-wt +74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$869) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +80% → late +82% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,108 vs −$223 · ×4.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.55 per $1 lost it wins $7.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

716d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$79,428
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses79 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)131 / 131
History coverage716d
Avg bet$784
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 131 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend? Dec 24 $1,256 +$15,462 +1231%
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend? Dec 22 $58 +$285 +492%
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $72-80m on 3-day opening weekend? Dec 22 $239 −$183 -76%
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $16-19m on 3-day opening weeken Dec 18 $260 −$260 -100%
Will 'Wicked' gross more than $500 million domestically by January 9? Dec 12 $17,015 +$3,003 +18%
Will 'Moana 2' gross more than $180m on 5-day opening weekend? Dec 02 $3,544 +$5,468 +154%
Will 'Moana 2' gross over $200m on 5-day opening? Dec 02 $3,216 +$7,766 +242%
Will Gladiator II gross between $53-60m on opening weekend? Nov 26 $351 +$1,130 +322%
Will 'Wicked' gross between $105-115m opening weekend? Nov 26 $1,284 +$6,904 +538%
Will Gladiator II gross between $60-67m on opening weekend? Nov 24 $245 −$88 -36%
Will 'Wicked' gross between $115-125m opening weekend? Nov 24 $1,001 −$23 -2%
Will 'Wicked' gross between $125-135m opening weekend? Nov 23 $1,642 −$146 -9%
Will 'Wicked' gross between $95-105m opening weekend? Nov 23 $1,710 −$1,402 -82%
Will Gladiator II gross less than $53m on opening weekend? Nov 23 $87 −$68 -78%
Will 'Wicked' gross less than $95m opening weekend? Nov 23 $1,207 −$550 -46%
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $45-53m opening weekend? Oct 28 $1,477 +$4,092 +277%
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $53-61m opening weekend? Oct 26 $869 −$605 -70%
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross less than $45m opening weekend? Oct 24 $775 −$352 -45%
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $61-70m opening weekend? Oct 22 $32 −$15 -46%
Will 'Smile 2' gross $24-27m opening weekend? Oct 21 $72 −$64 -90%
Will 'Smile 2' gross $21-24m opening weekend? Oct 21 $1,879 +$736 +39%
Will 'Smile 2' gross less than $21m opening weekend? Oct 19 $456 −$306 -67%
Will 'Terrifier 3' gross more than $19m opening weekend? Oct 14 $752 +$1,569 +209%
Will 'Terrifier 3' gross less than $16m opening weekend? Oct 13 $891 +$5 +1%
Will 'Terrifier 3' gross between $16-19m opening weekend? Oct 12 $398 +$341 +86%
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $48m opening weekend? Oct 08 $9,219 +$697 +8%
Will CinemaScore give 'Joker: Folie à Deux' an F? Oct 05 $55 −$55 -100%
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $60-66m opening weekend? Oct 02 $1,600 +$1,010 +63%
Will 'The Wild Robot' gross more than $38m opening weekend? Sep 29 $980 −$28 -3%
Will 'The Wild Robot' gross between $31m and $38m opening weekend? Sep 29 $361 +$50 +14%
Will 'The Wild Robot' gross between $24m and $31m opening weekend? Sep 28 $4 −$4 -95%
'Speak No Evil' grosses >$13m opening weekend? Sep 17 $95 +$161 +170%
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $105m opening weekend? Sep 10 $493 −$49 -10%
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? Sep 09 $1,872 +$4,288 +229%
'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' record September opening? Sep 06 $454 −$368 -81%
Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024? Aug 21 $1,284 −$35 -3%
Will 'Alien: Romulus' gross less than $44m opening weekend? Aug 19 $990 +$2,048 +207%
Will 'Alien: Romulus' gross more than $50m opening weekend? Aug 17 $86 +$39 +46%
Will 'It Ends with Us' gross between $40m and $44m opening weekend? Aug 11 $47 −$38 -81%
Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross over $90m 2nd weekend? Aug 04 $272 +$124 +46%
Will 'Trap' gross more than $20m opening weekend? Aug 04 $30 +$20 +65%
Deadpool & Wolverine' over $200m opening weekend? Jul 29 $2,125 +$1,983 +93%
Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend? Jul 28 $912 +$3,553 +390%
Will 'Twisters' gross between $56m and $61m opening weekend? Jul 19 $207 −$182 -88%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross more than $125m on 5-day opening weekend? Jul 06 $77 +$374 +486%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross less than $105m on 5-day opening weekend? Jul 06 $127 −$111 -87%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross between $105m and $115m on 5-day opening Jul 06 $70 +$10 +14%
Will 'A Quiet Place: Day One' gross between $48m and $54m opening week Jun 30 $36 +$85 +237%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Jun 21 $1,038 +$682 +66%
Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $150m and $170m opening week Jun 19 $300 −$140 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend? SELL Yes 27¢ $343 539d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $72-80m on 3-day opening weekend? SELL Yes $57 540d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes 14¢ $936 541d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $43 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $6 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $0 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $0 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $0 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $0 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $0 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $0 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $0 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $0 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $0 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $0 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $0 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $0 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $2 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $0 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $1 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $1 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $1 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $0 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $0 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $0 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $1 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $3 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $1 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $3 542d
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend? BUY Yes $3 542d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1443 history records