Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BA 0xba71…725b other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$153 (+9%) realized +$159 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +121% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +100% what you keep after slip
Net edge+100%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$74
14 days+$348
30 days+$342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$66
tech 16% +$33
world 12% −$10
sports 11% +$395
politics 5% +$52
crypto 5% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+100.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +192.0% +164.2% 56% 44% +17.0%
≤30d 22 +191.8% +164.0% 50% 36% +16.7%
≤90d 36 +121.3% +100.2% 47% 31% +12.8%
all 36 +121.3% +100.2% 47% 31% +12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +100.2% 31% +12.8%
10% +81.1% 31% +2.0%
15% +63.6% 25% -7.8%
20% +47.5% 25% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +121% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +238% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$8 · ×4.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.99 per $1 lost it wins $3.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized+$159
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)36 / 60
History coverage142d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $40 $48 +$8 (+19%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $38 $31 −$6 (-17%)
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will Raluca Turcan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $62 +$21 +34%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 18 $19 −$1 -8%
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 17 $27 −$6 -23%
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 16 $8 +$13 +158%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. Egyp Jun 16 $3 +$47 +1523%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $37 +$63 +167%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -23%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$61 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $88 +$3 +3%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $6 +$256 +4140%
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? Jun 13 $95 +$9 +9%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $4 +$27 +654%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 07 $68 −$9 -13%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $62 −$9 -15%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $60 −$10 -16%
Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31? Jun 06 $19 +$6 +34%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? Jun 04 $21 −$4 -20%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $44 +$28 +64%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? May 28 $5 −$3 -65%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? May 21 $23 +$43 +190%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun May 20 $16 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $15 +$64 +411%
Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31? May 17 $21 −$3 -14%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $11 +$3 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by May 31? May 06 $23 +$2 +9%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 08 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 08 $190 −$2 -1%
Will Trần Cẩm Tú be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 30 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $83 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2 BUY $2 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina w BUY $2 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia a BUY $2 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herz BUY $2 3d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 12¢ $17 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in BUY $3 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY $3 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY $4 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England vs. Croatia end in a dr BUY 11¢ $4 4d
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes $21 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY $3 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Jordan win on 2026- BUY $3 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY $3 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06- BUY $3 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY $3 5d
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes $21 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY 11¢ $3 6d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Egypt win on 202 BUY $3 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY $3 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a dr BUY 17¢ $3 6d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. Egyp BUY $3 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in BUY $3 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $3 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $37 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $4 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL Yes $32 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.13 · official $297.27 (match) · 150 history records