Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BA 0xba6e…bc14 sports 147 markets active 17h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$176 (-13%) realized −$166 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate31%38W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$176
14 days−$214
30 days−$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$164
world 11% −$17
other 7% −$5
politics 5% −$15
crypto 1% −$1
tech 1% +$1
finance 1% $0
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -18.8% -26.6% 36% 30% -25.9%
≤30d 121 -12.6% -21.0% 31% 26% -23.8%
≤90d 121 -12.6% -21.0% 31% 26% -23.8%
all 121 -12.6% -21.0% 31% 26% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 26% -23.8%
10% -28.5% 22% -31.1%
15% -35.4% 18% -37.8%
20% -41.8% 16% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$166
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses38 / 83
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions26
Markets (closed)121 / 147
History coverage27d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+8%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 87¢ 87¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+41%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 78¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 64¢ 62¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 90¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No 73¢ 62¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 31¢ 16¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 31¢ 16¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-90%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 40¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+150%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-94%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 21¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-18%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 55¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $4 +$2 +44%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $4 +$5 +135%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $11 +$7 +63%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $15 $0 -1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $15 +$4 +25%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $14 −$14 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $15 +$59 +383%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +31%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 +$3 +19%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 12 $15 $0 -1%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +55%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $15 −$1 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $9 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $15 +$12 +78%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $15 +$33 +213%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) Jun 11 $15 +$12 +81%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $15 +$25 +162%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 11 $15 +$6 +37%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $15 +$12 +78%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $15 +$16 +107%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $30 −$15 -49%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $15 $0 -1%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $15 −$1 -9%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 11 $15 +$1 +5%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 11 $10 −$6 -62%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 10 $15 +$2 +16%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $15 −$8 -52%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 10 $15 $0 -1%
LoL: Galions vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $15 +$2 +13%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $15 +$5 +36%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $15 +$24 +156%
LoL: Galions vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $3 $0 +5%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $15 $0 +2%
Nigeria leading at halftime? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -97%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $15 +$2 +11%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 10 $4 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $5 +$7 +132%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $15 +$20 +132%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis SELL Jerome Kym 99¢ $5 16h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Jerome Kym 68¢ $4 16h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 61¢ $4 19h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series SELL DXA Esports 98¢ $9 22h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY DXA Esports 41¢ $4 40h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 99¢ $18 45h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 60¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $4 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 78¢ $15 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $15 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 34¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 52¢ $15 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 32¢ $17 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 32¢ $2 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $15 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $14 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 46¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 99¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 78¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $74 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 20¢ $15 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $18 4d
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger SELL Ashlyn Krueger 76¢ $15 4d
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger BUY Ashlyn Krueger 76¢ $15 4d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 38¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 83¢ $15 4d
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina SELL Federico Cina 69¢ $8 4d
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina SELL Federico Cina 69¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.85 · official $100.35 (match) · 328 history records