Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:06:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

BA 0xba6e…11d8 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$13 (+11%) realized +$14 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip

Net edge+42%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$25per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+48.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+63.9%	+48.3%	100%	100%	+48.3%
≤30d	1	+63.9%	+48.3%	100%	100%	+48.3%
≤90d	1	+63.9%	+48.3%	100%	100%	+48.3%
all	1	+63.9%	+48.3%	100%	100%	+48.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+48.3%	100%	+48.3%
10%	+34.1%	100%	+34.1%
15%	+21.1%	100%	+21.1%
20%	+9.3%	100%	+9.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +64% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +64% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$99

Realized+$14

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)1 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$25

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	43¢	42¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	74¢	74¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	Yes	26¢	26¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 29	$20	+$13	+64%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	74¢	$20	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	43¢	$51	1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$21	14h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	14h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	60¢	$20	14h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.80 · official $98.80 (match) · 6 history records