Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:57:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BA 0xba6d…957b other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$2
politics 35% −$2
sports 10% −$1
other 10% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 11 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 14 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage93d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $1,295 −$2 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $1,343 −$2 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 18 $4 $0 -3%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $5 $0 -4%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 17 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $218 −$1 -0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in March? Mar 29 $160 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $28 $0 -0%
Will Will Zalatoris win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $84 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the Eastern Conference? Mar 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tennessee win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $50 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,293 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,261 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,007 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $57 2h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 2h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $334 2h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,343 2h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $4 69d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $4 69d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $5 70d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $5 70d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $217 70d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $217 70d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $8 71d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $8 72d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $218 75d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $218 75d
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in March? SELL No 100¢ $160 89d
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in March? BUY No 100¢ $160 89d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 89d
Will Will Zalatoris win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 100¢ $84 89d
Will Will Zalatoris win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 100¢ $64 89d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 89d
Will Will Zalatoris win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 100¢ $20 89d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $28 89d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $158 92d
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the Eastern Conference? SELL No 100¢ $27 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.74 · official $71.74 (match) · 35 history records