Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba6d…bf98 crypto 228 markets active 5d ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (134 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,717 (-4%) realized −$5,717 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%109W / 119L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$564per market
Trades / day133.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$10,092
sports 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (134 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -70.6% -73.4% 0% 0% -63.3%
≤30d 228 -11.4% -19.8% 48% 44% -14.1%
≤90d 228 -11.4% -19.8% 48% 44% -14.1%
all 228 -11.4% -19.8% 48% 44% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover133.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 44% -14.1%
10% -27.5% 42% -22.3%
15% ← realistic here -34.5% 33% -29.8%
20% -40.9% 30% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$401 vs −$453 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,717
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses109 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)228 / 228
History coverage7d
Avg bet$564
Trades / day133.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 228 Trades
no open positions (59 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $617 −$187 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $413 −$224 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $208 −$204 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 09 $1,125 −$825 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 08 $1,035 −$775 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 08 $523 −$408 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 08 $1,048 −$1,000 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 08 $1,031 +$630 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 08 $621 −$537 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $1,037 +$621 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 08 $1,031 −$1,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $316 +$867 +275%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $1,035 −$1,010 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 08 $1,034 −$996 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 08 $1,041 +$503 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $1,042 +$1,115 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 08 $1,088 −$1,033 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 08 $1,035 +$319 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $1,042 +$1,281 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $309 −$255 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 08 $1,044 +$1,159 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $1,021 −$741 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 08 $1,035 +$881 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 08 $1,043 +$584 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 08 $1,034 −$1,016 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 08 $1,033 −$901 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 08 $1,042 +$1,425 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $524 −$469 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 08 $1,034 +$788 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $1,081 +$281 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 08 $1,035 −$706 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 08 $316 −$244 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $900 −$900 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 08 $1,035 −$535 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 08 $1,040 −$982 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 08 $1,036 +$731 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 08 $105 −$39 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 08 $508 −$500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $1,050 −$977 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 08 $1,035 −$508 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 08 $1,028 −$852 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $1,031 +$761 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $1,032 −$471 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 08 $1,024 +$315 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $1,043 −$764 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 08 $1,037 −$168 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $421 −$400 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 08 $1,033 −$979 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 08 $1,037 −$994 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $311 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $198 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $204 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $159 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $413 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $189 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $413 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $208 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $46 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $253 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $570 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $471 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $84 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $81 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $179 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $189 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $846 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $115 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $523 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $489 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $559 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $894 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 966 history records