Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:01:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BA 0xba6c…08eb sports 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,100 (+31%) realized +$1,157 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%27W / 65L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$139
7 days+$211
14 days+$456
30 days+$743
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$1,217
other 31% +$163
crypto 23% +$1
economics 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +255.4% +221.5% 100% 100% +151.0%
≤30d 32 +33.2% +20.5% 41% 41% +39.7%
≤90d 92 +5.4% -4.6% 29% 29% +34.7%
all 92 +5.4% -4.6% 29% 29% +34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 29% +34.7%
10% -13.8% 29% +21.8%
15% -22.1% 29% +10.1%
20% -29.7% 28% -0.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$23 · ×4.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$1,157
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses27 / 65
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 110
History coverage80d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $100 +$139 +140%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $19 +$72 +371%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in Second Half AND Will Ne Jun 20 $38 +$130 +342%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Switze Jun 18 $51 +$199 +388%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $53 +$58 +110%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $38 +$117 +311%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 −$20 -58%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$4 -25%
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 07 $54 −$54 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 05 $36 +$54 +152%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $39 +$81 +206%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 02 $37 −$37 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $46 +$77 +168%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 02 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $45 −$45 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $61 +$106 +173%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $44 +$93 +214%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $51 +$71 +140%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $136 +$175 +129%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $62 −$62 -100%
Gabriel Jesus: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $194 +$143 +74%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6? May 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $75 +$614 +822%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $14 −$4 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 01 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 1? May 01 $22 +$90 +400%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 29? Apr 29 $10 −$7 -70%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 27 $39 +$59 +152%
XRP Up or Down - April 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Apr 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Apr 26 $13 +$5 +42%
Will NEC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $24 +$25 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 11AM ET Apr 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3AM ET Apr 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 35¢ $57 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Netherlands O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Moroc BUY 21¢ $42 7h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 18¢ $19 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 41¢ $100 30h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals AND South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY 13¢ $17 32h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND Croatia vs. Ghana: Both BUY 13¢ $17 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND BUY 14¢ $25 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both BUY 7¢ $20 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 21¢ $19 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND BUY 25¢ $20 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 21¢ $29 8d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY 27¢ $43 9d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 9d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 9d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 14¢ $15 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at BUY 14¢ $15 9d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in Second Half AND Will Ne BUY 22¢ $38 9d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY 20¢ $34 10d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Australia: BUY 22¢ $39 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 86¢ $111 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 40¢ $53 11d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total BUY 19¢ $49 11d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Switze BUY 20¢ $51 11d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Czechia vs. South BUY 23¢ $52 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 12d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 12d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 86¢ $155 13d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 28¢ $2 13d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 8¢ $15 13d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $34 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.88 · official $44.65 · 408 history records