Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:57:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba67…fb50 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$318 (-46%) realized −$350 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%5W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$281
14 days−$325
30 days−$325
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$257
crypto 10% +$15
sports 8% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-59.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -65.1% -68.4% 20% 20% -66.1%
≤30d 19 -55.1% -59.4% 26% 26% -58.0%
≤90d 19 -55.1% -59.4% 26% 26% -58.0%
all 19 -55.1% -59.4% 26% 26% -58.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.4% 26% -58.0%
10% -63.3% 26% -62.0%
15% -66.8% 21% -65.7%
20% -70.1% 16% -69.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$32 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$350
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses5 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage8d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 97¢ $50 $70 +$20 (+41%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Yes 14¢ 27¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+93%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$35 +69%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $116 −$114 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $75 −$73 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $51 −$42 -83%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$27 +89%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $18 −$17 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $14 +$3 +22%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $82 −$80 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $47 +$50 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 50m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 50m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $85 10h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 12h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $116 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $75 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 29¢ $15 5d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 5d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 6d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 6d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 7d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 7d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $82 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $97 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.56 · official $101.56 (match) · 31 history records