Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:58:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BA 0xba67…7ec7 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-2%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$5
crypto 29% −$3
sports 4% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -14.7% -22.8% 46% 38% -15.6%
≤30d 13 -14.7% -22.8% 46% 38% -15.6%
≤90d 13 -14.7% -22.8% 46% 38% -15.6%
all 13 -14.7% -22.8% 46% 38% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 38% -15.6%
10% -30.2% 31% -23.7%
15% -36.9% 23% -31.1%
20% -43.1% 23% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)13 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$9 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$7 +145%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$7 +222%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$11 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $25 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 36h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $12 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 38h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $12 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 40h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 82¢ $10 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $10 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 41h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $23 41h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 42h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 42h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.72 · official $160.72 (match) · 31 history records