trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December? | Yes | 86¢ | 0¢ | $3,154 | $0 | −$3,154 (-100%) |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? | Yes | 65¢ | 0¢ | $33,000 | $0 | −$33,000 (-100%) |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? | No | 39¢ | 0¢ | $47,398 | $0 | −$47,398 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Parma Calcio 1913 (-1.5) | May 31 | $9,996 | +$69 | +1% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | Mar 13 | $33,058 | +$5,520 | +17% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m | Mar 13 | $238,780 | +$1,046 | +0% |
| Will Robinhood be accused of insider trading? | Mar 02 | $29,280 | +$2,017 | +7% |
| US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? | Feb 04 | $100,000 | +$3,211 | +3% |
| Will Base launch a token in 2025? | Jan 30 | $107,626 | +$1,611 | +2% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Dec 11 | $31,033 | +$2,300 | +7% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 11 | $71,190 | +$21,810 | +31% |
| Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? | Dec 05 | $100,000 | +$203 | +0% |
| MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes? | Nov 25 | $49,973 | −$6,880 | -14% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | Nov 21 | $28,890 | +$1,110 | +4% |
| Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? | Nov 10 | $93,000 | +$37,739 | +41% |
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | Nov 08 | $300,000 | −$20,095 | -7% |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? | Nov 05 | $33,000 | −$33,000 | -100% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 05 | $557,389 | +$47,419 | +8% |
| Will Inter win on 2025-11-02? | Nov 03 | $3,600 | +$1,400 | +39% |
| Will Verona win on 2025-11-02? | Nov 03 | $9,100 | +$900 | +10% |
| Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen | Nov 03 | $50,000 | +$364 | +1% |
| Over $4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Nov 02 | $49,850 | +$150 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? | Nov 02 | $99,974 | +$40,143 | +40% |
| Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Oct 30 | $300,000 | −$202,429 | -68% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 30 | $549,851 | +$9,775 | +2% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Sep 18 | $299,883 | +$29,518 | +10% |
| Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December? | Nov 28 | $3,154 | −$3,154 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? | Nov 13 | $47,400 | −$47,398 | -100% |
| Trump wins every swing state? | Nov 10 | $42,373 | +$8,165 | +19% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $1,933,921 | +$1,530,259 | +79% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $116,290 | +$90,657 | +78% |
| Biden drops out in July? | Jul 22 | $19,995 | +$2,938 | +15% |
| Biden drops out of presidential race? | Jul 22 | $10,000 | +$33,478 | +335% |
| Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? | Jul 01 | $100,999 | −$100,999 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 100% | 0% | -8.9% |
| ≤90d | 1 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 100% | 0% | -8.9% |
| all | 31 | +8.4% | -1.9% | 77% | 32% | +14.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -1.9% | 32% | +14.8% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -11.3% | 23% | +3.8% |
| 15% | -19.9% | 19% | -6.2% |
| 20% | -27.7% | 10% | -15.4% |