Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:14:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba65…54d5 other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-19%) realized −$80 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$86
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -26.0% -33.1% 20% 20% -34.0%
≤30d 5 -26.0% -33.1% 20% 20% -34.0%
≤90d 5 -26.0% -33.1% 20% 20% -34.0%
all 5 -26.0% -33.1% 20% 20% -34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.1% 20% -34.0%
10% -39.5% 20% -40.3%
15% -45.3% 20% -46.1%
20% -50.7% 0% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$32 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$80
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 36¢ 36¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 $0 -8%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 $0 -12%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $92 +$44 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $220 −$128 -58%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 14m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 14m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $95 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 99¢ $136 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 66¢ $92 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 33¢ $92 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $220 24h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.87 · official $108.87 (match) · 11 history records