Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:50:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba64…e1f9 other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 304d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%16W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$2
world 33% $0
politics 17% +$2
sports 8% +$1
economics 6% −$1
culture 2% $0
finance 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 0% -6.3%
≤30d 14 -2.0% -11.3% 29% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 14 -2.0% -11.3% 29% 0% -9.8%
all 54 -3.5% -12.7% 30% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses16 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage304d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 73¢ 73¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $20 +$2 +9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -9%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $60 +$4 +6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $45 −$3 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $44 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $44 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $24 −$1 -3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 30 $9 −$1 -6%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Dec 24 $2 $0 -4%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $16 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Nov 19 $1 −$1 -68%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 23 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $8 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $5 $0 +9%
Will A House of Dynamite win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 10 $17 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 10 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Oct 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 25 $5 $0 -3%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 25 $33 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $44 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $1 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $39 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $40 12h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 29h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 31h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $22 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $9 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $11 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $39 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $12 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $24 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $5 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $14 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $18 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $14 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $7 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $18 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $11 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $11 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.80 · official $43.80 (match) · 188 history records