Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:47:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BA
0xba63…36dc
weather · 96 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$14,115 -231%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14,250 · open +$138
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$783
Realized−$14,250
Unrealized+$138
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses33 / 277
Open positions4
Markets (closed)310 / 96
History coverage11d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day319.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 310 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13,667
7 days−$13,908
14 days−$14,250
30 days−$14,250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Yes 31¢ 100¢ $131 $422 +$291 (+221%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $194 $194 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $157 $167 +$11 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $163 $0 −$163 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 6? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 29? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 10? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 23? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 28? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $86 $0 −$86 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on May 31? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 6? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $155 $0 −$155 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 25? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 7? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 2? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on May 26? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on May 31? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 25? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 8? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $278 $0 −$278 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 29? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 1? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 28? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 3? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $103 $0 −$103 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 27? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 31? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on May 23? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 29? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 23? Jun 12 $37 −$38 -101%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 28? Jun 12 $86 −$86 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on May 31? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 25? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -105%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on May 26? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on May 31? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 25? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 29? Jun 12 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 1? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 28? Jun 12 $65 −$65 -101%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 27? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 31? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on May 23? Jun 12 $35 −$37 -106%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 2? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 27? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 27? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 26? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 29? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 29? Jun 12 $94 −$94 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 15? Jun 12 $689 −$689 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 26? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 28? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -101%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on May 31? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 1? Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 30? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May Jun 12 $45 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 27? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? Jun 12 $244 −$244 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 2? Jun 12 $54 −$55 -101%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 26? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 23? Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 1? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 29? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -101%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 1? Jun 12 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 30? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 24? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 1? Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 29? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on April 21? Jun 12 $274 −$274 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 31? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on May 28? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on May 31? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ap Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 23? Jun 12 $49 −$50 -101%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 31? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 31? Jun 12 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 26? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on May 29? Jun 12 $155 −$155 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-69.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 289 -74.6% -77.1% 9% 9% -79.4%
≤30d 310 -65.9% -69.2% 11% 10% -74.5%
≤90d 310 -65.9% -69.2% 11% 10% -74.5%
all 310 -65.9% -69.2% 11% 10% -74.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover319.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -69.2% 10% -74.5%
10% ← realistic here -72.1% 10% -77.0%
15% -74.8% 10% -79.2%
20% -77.3% 10% -81.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $783.26 · official $783.26 (match) · 3500 history records