Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba63…6b84 crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$986 (-18%) realized −$986 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day85.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$986
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -4.4% -13.5% 44% 44% -25.0%
≤30d 18 -4.4% -13.5% 44% 44% -25.0%
≤90d 18 -4.4% -13.5% 44% 44% -25.0%
all 18 -4.4% -13.5% 44% 44% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 44% -25.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 39% -32.2%
15% -29.3% 33% -38.7%
20% -36.3% 28% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$205 vs −$263 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$986
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$305
Trades / day85.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 29 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 29 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $407 −$73 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $722 −$722 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 29 $404 +$62 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $343 −$332 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $307 +$74 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 29 $415 −$398 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $231 +$146 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $131 +$465 +356%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $103 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 29 $541 +$398 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $204 +$89 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $635 −$592 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $112 −$46 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 29 $311 +$352 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 29 $375 −$223 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$5 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $106 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $197 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $107 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $11 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $106 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records