Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:49:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BA 0xba63…6a87 economics 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$5 (+3%) realized +$21 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 88d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$7
other 31% $0
economics 11% −$3
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +26.7% +14.6% 100% 50% +45.6%
all 4 +26.7% +14.6% 100% 50% +45.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.6% 50% +45.6%
10% +3.7% 25% +31.7%
15% -6.3% 25% +19.0%
20% -15.5% 25% +7.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)4 / 10
History coverage88d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ 38¢ $85 $73 −$12 (-14%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? Yes 27¢ 21¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-24%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 6.0% and 7.0%? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Apr 24 $23 +$19 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Apr 23 $2 $0 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 23 $2 $0 +14%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Apr 23 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.52 · official $139.52 (match) · 14 history records