Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:00:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba63…4883 crypto 136 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,286 (-12%) realized −$1,286 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%72W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$995
7 days−$992
14 days−$1,476
30 days−$1,476
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$1,114
sports 35% −$706
other 5% +$343
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -10.1% -18.7% 48% 43% -22.7%
≤30d 136 -3.0% -12.2% 53% 46% -21.8%
≤90d 136 -3.0% -12.2% 53% 46% -21.8%
all 136 -3.0% -12.2% 53% 46% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 46% -21.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 41% -29.3%
15% -28.3% 35% -36.1%
20% -35.3% 30% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$62 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,286
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses72 / 64
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions0
Markets (closed)136 / 136
History coverage11d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 136 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $90 +$84 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $80 +$113 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $132 +$20 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $114 −$110 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $190 −$14 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $104 +$39 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $109 −$106 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $69 +$41 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $414 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $273 +$210 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $165 +$108 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $620 −$600 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $104 −$100 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $366 −$202 -55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $367 +$357 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $104 −$104 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $105 −$105 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 19 $90 −$90 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $206 +$36 +18%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $202 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $128 +$116 +91%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 +$10 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $135 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $90 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $138 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $132 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $142 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $143 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $104 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $109 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $109 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $69 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $414 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $483 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $66 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $207 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $273 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $165 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $620 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 7h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $164 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 339 history records