Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:43:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xba62…b19b sports 45 markets active 3d ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$48,377 (+35%) realized +$48,377 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%23W / 22L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$3,073per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1,079est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$200
14 days+$48,587
30 days+$48,587
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$43,757
economics 8% −$1,042
world 2% +$4,640
politics 1% +$120
other 0% −$152
finance 0% −$418
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 +19.9% +8.5% 50% 50% +53.3%
≤90d 7 +22.7% +11.0% 57% 57% +52.4%
all 45 -4.2% -13.3% 51% 47% +23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 47% +23.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 38% +11.8%
15% -29.2% 33% +1.0%
20% -36.1% 31% -8.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +68% too few recent
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +37% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$1,232) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3,653 vs −$1,687 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$48,377
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses23 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1,079
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage250d
Avg bet$3,073
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $31,377 +$25,938 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $18,056 −$17,810 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20,633 +$40,659 +197%
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Mar 30 $1,000 +$517 +52%
Rangers vs. Jets Mar 30 $2,000 +$2,550 +128%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 30 $11,000 −$1,000 -9%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $860 +$1,922 +224%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $1,232 +$2,707 +220%
Kings vs. Rockets Feb 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Feb 21 $100 +$52 +52%
Heat vs. Hawks Feb 21 $385 −$385 -100%
Pistons vs. Knicks Feb 19 $730 −$730 -100%
Hawks vs. 76ers Feb 19 $3,200 −$3,200 -100%
Rockets vs. Hornets Feb 19 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou Feb 19 $3,077 +$1,888 +61%
LoL: DN Freecs vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 19 $4,250 −$4,250 -100%
Will Qarabağ advance to the round of 16? Feb 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Houston Cougars vs. Iowa State Cyclones Feb 17 $5,200 +$3,505 +67%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Feb 16 $13,000 −$143 -1%
Heat vs. Pelicans Feb 12 $400 +$243 +61%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN Freecs (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 12 $6,800 +$1,871 +28%
Spurs vs. Warriors Feb 12 $3,550 −$3,550 -100%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Dec 04 $310 +$60 +19%
Utah vs. Sharks Dec 02 $500 −$500 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Oct 31 $500 −$500 -100%
Broncos vs. Texans Oct 31 $1,150 −$1,150 -100%
Hawks vs. Pacers Oct 31 $450 −$450 -100%
Ravens vs. Dolphins Oct 31 $500 +$133 +27%
Hornets vs. Heat Oct 31 $600 +$282 +47%
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Oct 27 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 27 $518 −$418 -81%
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 27 $250 +$556 +223%
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 27 $880 +$120 +14%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Oct 22 $400 −$400 -100%
Rockets vs. Thunder Oct 22 $349 −$26 -8%
Canucks vs. Penguins Oct 22 $255 +$245 +96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 21? Oct 21 $29 $0 +0%
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Oct 21 $229 +$195 +85%
Raiders vs. Chiefs Oct 20 $350 +$48 +14%
Dodgers vs. Brewers Oct 20 $530 +$470 +89%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31? Oct 14 $89 +$11 +12%
Lions vs. Chiefs Oct 14 $960 +$40 +4%
Eagles vs. Giants Oct 08 $790 −$790 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $31,377 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $18,056 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $4,807 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $7,618 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $8,208 13d
Rangers vs. Jets BUY Rangers 44¢ $2,000 98d
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies BUY Mavericks 66¢ $1,000 98d
Kings vs. Rockets BUY Kings 14¢ $100 113d
Heat vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 44¢ $385 118d
Cavaliers vs. Hornets BUY Cavaliers 66¢ $100 118d
Pistons vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 60¢ $730 119d
Hawks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 52¢ $3,200 119d
Rockets vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 38¢ $1,200 119d
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $440 120d
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $420 120d
LoL: DN Freecs vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs BUY DRX 51¢ $4,250 120d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $23 121d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $44 121d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou BUY Aurora Gaming 62¢ $3,000 121d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou BUY Aurora Gaming 62¢ $10 121d
Will Qarabağ advance to the round of 16? BUY Yes $12 121d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes $2 122d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes $40 122d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $1,232 122d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 94¢ $10,000 122d
Houston Cougars vs. Iowa State Cyclones BUY Iowa State Cyclones 60¢ $5,200 122d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes $1,000 123d
Mavericks vs. Lakers BUY Mavericks 32¢ $4,000 126d
Mavericks vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 70¢ $9,000 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records