Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:11:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xba5e…f9c4 sports 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11,446 (+28%) realized +$11,867 · open −$421
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%23W / 26L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$794per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$620est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$381
7 days−$1,610
14 days+$11,447
30 days+$11,447
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$11,026
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -55.3% -59.6% 25% 25% -51.2%
≤30d 49 -9.4% -18.0% 47% 47% +16.5%
≤90d 49 -9.4% -18.0% 47% 47% +16.5%
all 49 -9.4% -18.0% 47% 47% +16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 47% +16.5%
10% -25.8% 47% +5.3%
15% -33.0% 45% -4.8%
20% -39.6% 41% -14.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +29% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,462) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,083 vs −$518 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11,867
Unrealized−$421
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses23 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$620
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage11d
Avg bet$794
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BetBoom Team 64¢ 0¢ $278 $0 −$278 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 40¢ 0¢ $143 $0 −$143 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $198 −$194 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $147 −$145 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $43 −$42 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $57 −$55 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $28 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $79 −$77 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $146 −$143 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $342 −$337 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $210 +$132 +63%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $110 +$100 +91%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $513 −$505 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $261 +$253 +97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $820 −$804 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $502 +$320 +64%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $365 −$360 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $818 −$800 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $307 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,521 −$1,500 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $1,135 +$2,045 +180%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $1,525 +$1,880 +123%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $1,520 +$1,133 +75%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $512 −$500 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $1,473 +$1,609 +109%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,472 +$1,439 +98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,474 −$1,450 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,322 +$1,749 +132%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $1,473 −$1,450 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,473 +$1,612 +109%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $1,425 +$2,075 +146%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,515 +$757 +50%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $659 −$645 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1,462 +$528 +36%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $205 −$200 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,471 +$1,315 +89%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $615 −$600 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $956 +$806 +84%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,470 −$1,450 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,476 +$2,061 +140%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1,516 +$828 +55%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,470 +$1,212 +82%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $245 +$206 +84%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1,410 +$405 +29%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $512 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,472 +$1,425 +97%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $308 −$300 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $949 +$1,027 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $145 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 64¢ $281 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 33¢ $198 8h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 66¢ $147 9h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $43 24h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $57 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 29¢ $28 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 30¢ $43 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 44¢ $43 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 17¢ $79 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 49¢ $146 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $342 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $342 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 61¢ $210 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $210 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 51¢ $110 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 50¢ $513 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $514 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 50¢ $261 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $820 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $822 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $502 6d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY Vitality 54¢ $365 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 26¢ $818 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 19¢ $307 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 54¢ $1,521 7d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 100¢ $3,406 7d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 35¢ $1,121 7d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 35¢ $13 7d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $1,525 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.40 · official $0.40 (match) · 76 history records