Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xba5d…230e crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$285 (+11%) realized +$285 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 79% +$219
crypto 12% −$110
other 5% +$161
sports 4% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -12.0% -20.3% 59% 50% +1.8%
≤30d 22 -12.0% -20.3% 59% 50% +1.8%
≤90d 22 -12.0% -20.3% 59% 50% +1.8%
all 22 -12.0% -20.3% 59% 50% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 50% +1.8%
10% -28.0% 41% -8.0%
15% -34.9% 36% -16.8%
20% -41.3% 23% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$19 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.98 per $1 lost it wins $2.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$285
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage6d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $102 +$69 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $147 +$161 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $2,139 +$219 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $12 −$11 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$12 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$14 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $28 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$12 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $171 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $308 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 47¢ $147 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 100¢ $2,170 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records