Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BA 0xba5c…c5ed sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$127 (-6%) realized −$15 · open −$112
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$63
14 days−$63
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$249
other 22% +$44
world 2% −$40
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.1% -9.4% 45% 45% -19.8%
≤30d 24 -16.3% -24.3% 42% 42% -26.4%
≤90d 40 -9.5% -18.1% 45% 45% -15.7%
all 40 -9.5% -18.1% 45% 45% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 45% -15.7%
10% -25.9% 45% -23.8%
15% -33.1% 45% -31.2%
20% -39.7% 40% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$39 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$112
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage36d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners Over 52¢ 16¢ $162 $50 −$112 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$25 +250%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $73 −$39 -54%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $74 +$48 +65%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $47 +$44 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $74 +$40 +54%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $80 −$79 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul May 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5) May 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 22 $51 +$45 +90%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5) May 21 $51 −$50 -98%
PortlandFire vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 May 21 $51 +$47 +93%
Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $50 +$24 +48%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 May 20 $66 +$52 +79%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $49 −$48 -99%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $50 −$50 -99%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $51 +$49 +97%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5 May 18 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $80 +$33 +42%
Charlotte FC vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5 May 13 $35 −$34 -99%
Minnesota United FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 2.5 May 13 $35 −$35 -99%
Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC: O/U 2.5 May 13 $41 +$30 +73%
Ulsan HD FC vs. Jeju SK FC: O/U 2.5 May 13 $33 −$33 -99%
Modena FC 2018 vs. SS Juve Stabia: O/U 2.5 May 13 $46 +$27 +60%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 May 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9AM ET May 12 $5 −$2 -30%
Will FC Seoul win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $101 +$58 +57%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 May 12 $41 +$36 +90%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 215.5 May 12 $51 −$50 -99%
NEOM SC vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 May 12 $48 +$28 +57%
Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score May 12 $46 +$32 +70%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $49 −$3 -6%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $51 −$2 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $39 50m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $44 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Under 47¢ $44 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 53¢ $51 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $81 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Under 23¢ $33 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 48¢ $73 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $74 14h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 40h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $51 44h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $47 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $51 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $51 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $74 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $29 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $51 3d
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul BUY Alex de Minaur 95¢ $31 25d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 54¢ $51 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 25d
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 48¢ $51 26d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 26d
PortlandFire vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 BUY Under 51¢ $51 27d
Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $75 27d
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $51 27d
Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 67¢ $50 27d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 55¢ $66 28d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $49 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.51 · official $49.51 (match) · 68 history records