Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:25:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba57…a15f sports 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$2 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$11
other 45% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -9.3% -17.9% 0% 0% -17.6%
≤30d 2 -9.3% -17.9% 0% 0% -17.6%
≤90d 2 -9.3% -17.9% 0% 0% -17.6%
all 2 -9.3% -17.9% 0% 0% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -17.6%
10% -25.8% 0% -25.5%
15% -33.0% 0% -32.7%
20% -39.5% 0% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)2 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 60¢ 100¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+66%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Under 39¢ 40¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Kyle Daukaus 25¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 22¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $10 1m
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 39¢ $11 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $20 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 15¢ $9 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $14 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 16¢ $10 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.53 · official $131.53 (match) · 10 history records