Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:26:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BA 0xba57…1e84 sports 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,475 (+34%) realized +$2,498 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR91%break-even
Win rate91%10W / 1L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$613per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$666now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$3,709
other 7% +$446
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +91%
net ROI/market (all)+51.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +67.4% +51.4% 91% 91% +47.3%
≤30d 11 +67.4% +51.4% 91% 91% +47.3%
≤90d 11 +67.4% +51.4% 91% 91% +47.3%
all 11 +67.4% +51.4% 91% 91% +47.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +51.4% 91% +47.3%
10% ← realistic here +36.9% 91% +33.2%
15% +23.7% 91% +20.3%
20% +11.6% 73% +8.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +63% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +67% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$480 vs −$623 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.7 per $1 lost it wins $7.7
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$666
Realized+$2,498
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses10 / 1
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$613
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 59¢ $688 $666 −$23 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $416 +$387 +93%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $306 +$527 +172%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,253 +$809 +64%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $600 +$655 +109%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $629 −$623 -99%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $444 +$184 +41%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $400 +$202 +50%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $550 +$355 +64%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $499 +$446 +89%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $758 +$285 +38%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $804 +$952 +118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $696 2m
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $802 11m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $832 11m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,062 12m
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $416 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $306 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1,253 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,255 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 68¢ $629 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $628 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $600 4h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $602 10h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 66¢ $400 10h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $444 10h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $904 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $946 27h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 60¢ $550 28h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,042 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $499 28h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $758 30h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,756 30h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $804 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $665.82 · official $660.18 (match) · 22 history records