Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

BA 0xba57…48a6 other 21 markets active 11h ago coverage 232d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$15,567 (+21%) realized +$15,567 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate57%12W / 9L

Whale WR83%big bets

Drawdown8%max

Avg bet$3,574per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit14%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$546

7 days−$546

14 days−$546

30 days−$546

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)+15.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+34.6%	+21.8%	25%	25%	-60.1%
≤30d	8	+34.6%	+21.8%	25%	25%	-60.1%
≤90d	8	+34.6%	+21.8%	25%	25%	-60.1%
all	21	+27.2%	+15.1%	57%	52%	+9.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+15.1%	52%	+9.2%
10% ← realistic here	+4.1%	43%	-1.2%
15%	-6.0%	29%	-10.8%
20%	-15.2%	24%	-19.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 58% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +27% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 83% (≥$2,100) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +46% → late +11% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$1,426 vs −$173 · ×8.25 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×11.0 per $1 lost it wins $11.0

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$15,567

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses12 / 9

Whale WR (big bets)83%

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage232d

Avg bet$3,574

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown8%

Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$51	+$240	+468%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$705	−$616	-88%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	+$31	+297%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$10	$0	-1%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-98%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-97%
Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Jan 29	$400	−$400	-100%
Moonbirds FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Jan 29	$100	−$100	-100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	Dec 29	$11,800	+$4,614	+39%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?	Dec 29	$2,100	+$2,470	+118%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	Dec 24	$550	+$130	+24%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?	Dec 10	$2,340	+$779	+33%
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Dec 09	$4,602	+$3,318	+72%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	Nov 25	$3,571	−$240	-7%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	Nov 24	$48,200	+$5,303	+11%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?	Nov 24	$100	+$10	+10%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	Nov 24	$200	+$67	+34%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)	Nov 01	$9	+$1	+11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 29?	Oct 31	$100	+$149	+149%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$291	11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	10¢	$88	11h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	8¢	$41	11h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	13h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$51	13h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo?	SELL No	97¢	$10	13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$503	13h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	14¢	$51	13h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	14¢	$51	13h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	17¢	$51	13h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY No	97¢	$10	13h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	7¢	$51	13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$50	13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$50	13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$101	13h
Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	43¢	$200	139d
Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	40¢	$200	139d
Moonbirds FDV above $400M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	7¢	$100	139d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	SELL No	70¢	$425	170d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	SELL No	70¢	$1,044	170d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	SELL No	70¢	$55	170d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	SELL No	70¢	$236	170d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	SELL No	70¢	$62	170d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	SELL No	70¢	$4,277	170d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	SELL No	70¢	$3,500	170d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	SELL No	70¢	$109	170d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	SELL No	70¢	$223	170d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	SELL No	70¢	$34	170d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	SELL No	70¢	$35	170d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	SELL No	70¢	$6,414	170d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 212 history records