Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:52:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba56…10e8 sports 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$178 (-3%) realized −$178 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%65W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$212
7 days−$212
14 days−$785
30 days−$580
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$282
other 5% −$118
crypto 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -35.6% -41.8% 32% 28% -26.7%
≤30d 146 -16.5% -24.4% 39% 37% -20.2%
≤90d 157 -12.7% -21.0% 41% 39% -16.6%
all 157 -12.7% -21.0% 41% 39% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 39% -16.6%
10% -28.6% 37% -24.6%
15% -35.5% 32% -31.9%
20% -41.8% 27% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$21 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses65 / 92
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions0
Markets (closed)157 / 157
History coverage34d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 157 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $33 +$101 +307%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 23 $36 +$42 +119%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 +$33 +65%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $122 +$64 +52%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $76 −$43 -57%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 23 $42 −$41 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros Juniors, Girls: Alisa Oktiabreva vs Xinran Sun Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Alex Bolt Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daria Snigur vs Anhelina Kalinina Jun 23 $46 +$6 +14%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina Jun 23 $187 −$125 -67%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$58 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 22 $20 −$15 -75%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $71 +$2 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Johannus Monday vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 22 $20 +$11 +52%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Soon-Woo Kw Jun 22 $31 −$19 -60%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $79 −$40 -51%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $51 −$19 -37%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $26 +$25 +96%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $10 +$9 +90%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $3 −$1 -20%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $5 −$1 -24%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $25 +$13 +52%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $40 −$15 -36%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $56 −$56 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $30 −$23 -76%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 63¢ $152 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 53¢ $84 1h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 93¢ $186 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres SELL Atlanta Braves 16¢ $33 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 25¢ $15 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 25¢ $10 2h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 2h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 45¢ $36 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 8¢ $5 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 45¢ $51 3h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 17¢ $10 3h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Cleveland Guardians 71¢ $73 3h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 13¢ $15 3h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 35¢ $37 3h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 25¢ $20 4h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 23¢ $2 4h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 21¢ $20 4h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 4h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 4h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 61¢ $122 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Daria Kasatkina 24¢ $10 11h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Daria Kasatkina 34¢ $35 12h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Daria Kasatkina 30¢ $28 12h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Daria Kasatkina 30¢ $2 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina SELL Daria Kasatkina 31¢ $62 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 478 history records