Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:09:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BA
0xba55…af02
world · 76 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,179 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$239 · open −$1,419
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$1,618
Realized+$239
Unrealized−$1,419
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses38 / 30
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)68 / 76
History coverage80d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 8 History 68 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$58
14 days+$78
30 days+$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $665 $750 +$86 (+13%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Yes $1,075 $343 −$732 (-68%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Yes 20¢ $400 $160 −$240 (-60%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Yes $673 $156 −$517 (-77%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 78¢ 90¢ $70 $81 +$11 (+16%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 63¢ 56¢ $71 $63 −$8 (-12%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? No 57¢ 44¢ $77 $59 −$18 (-24%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? No 34¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 10 $66 −$12 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $70 +$15 +22%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 10 $58 +$17 +29%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 10 $78 +$17 +22%
Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31? Jun 09 $62 +$21 +34%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 01 $70 −$20 -28%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Jun 01 $62 +$7 +12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $54 −$50 -93%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $2 +$1 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 30 $53 +$78 +149%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $57 +$5 +9%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 30 $63 −$3 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 29 $72 −$18 -25%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $70 +$134 +190%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 28 $52 +$50 +96%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 23 $66 +$13 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $60 −$31 -52%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $37 −$32 -86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $69 −$38 -55%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? May 22 $66 −$35 -53%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $63 +$27 +43%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 18 $68 +$12 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 18 $71 −$25 -36%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? May 16 $140 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $55 +$48 +86%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 15 $62 +$23 +36%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? May 03 $69 +$3 +4%
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? May 03 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 03 $69 −$43 -62%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 01 $61 −$31 -51%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? Apr 30 $69 +$5 +7%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 27 $67 +$13 +20%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 27 $62 +$34 +54%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Apr 23 $5 $0 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 22 $63 +$42 +66%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 21 $5 −$3 -53%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $37 +$9 +25%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 19 $39 +$6 +15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 15 $62 −$16 -26%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 14 $64 +$6 +10%
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this e Apr 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Apr 14 $62 +$8 +13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 13 $14 −$6 -42%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? Apr 13 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Apr 13 $60 +$29 +48%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 12 $9 +$4 +43%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? Apr 12 $8 +$13 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 51% −$1,416
world 21% +$176
finance 10% −$100
other 9% +$228
politics 4% −$50
sports 3% −$3
crypto 2% −$16
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes $10 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $41 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 20¢ $400 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $17 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $1 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $1 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $24 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes $493 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes $17 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes $21 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $2 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $11 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $32 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $1 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes $32 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $4 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $4 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $4 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $11 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $128 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $15 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $113 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $6 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $70 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $113 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $1 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $18 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $1 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $15 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +17.7% +6.4% 80% 80% +6.2%
≤30d 27 +13.0% +2.2% 59% 52% +1.4%
≤90d 68 -3.8% -13.0% 56% 46% -1.4%
all 68 -3.8% -13.0% 56% 46% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 46% -1.4%
10% -21.3% 26% -10.9%
15% -28.9% 18% -19.5%
20% -35.9% 12% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,617.65 · official $1,617.65 (match) · 201 history records