Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:30:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BA
0xba54…f87c
world · 33 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$6 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$31
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage454d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 2 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 65¢ 65¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-18%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? No 81¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $75 −$5 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $62 −$3 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $117 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $33 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 28 $7 $0 +1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 27 $5 $0 -4%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $4 $0 -2%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 24 $2 +$1 +61%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? May 24 $6 $0 +3%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend? May 21 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 21 $14 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 16–23? May 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Apr 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Cantlay win The 2025 Masters? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 07 $13 $0 +1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? Mar 30 $13 $0 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 26 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $11 $0 +4%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 21? Mar 19 $14 $0 -2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 71% −$8
other 11% $0
crypto 7% +$1
sports 4% $0
politics 4% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $31 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $32 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $32 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $4 20h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $12 20h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $14 20h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $3 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $24 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $5 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $7 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $9 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $13 26h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $7 26h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 30h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 33h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $17 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 35¢ $2 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 35¢ $28 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $43 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $43 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $42 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $16 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $17 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $43 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -12.5% -20.8% 11% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 11 -10.2% -18.7% 9% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 11 -10.2% -18.7% 9% 0% -11.2%
all 31 -1.6% -11.0% 45% 6% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 6% -10.4%
10% -19.5% 3% -18.9%
15% -27.3% 3% -26.8%
20% -34.4% 3% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.89 · official $30.55 (match) · 106 history records