Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BA 0xba50…ad0b sports 1032 markets active 17h ago coverage 51d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8,216 (-3%) realized −$8,275 · open +$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%510W / 510L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day56.2pace
Fees−$3,508est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,780
7 days+$2,235
14 days+$1,018
30 days−$3,291
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$7,643
other 0% −$310
politics 0% +$51
crypto 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 +12.2% +1.5% 50% 50% -2.5%
≤30d 636 -4.6% -13.6% 48% 47% -11.4%
≤90d 1020 -3.6% -12.8% 50% 50% -12.3%
all 1020 -3.6% -12.8% 50% 50% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 50% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 47% -20.7%
15% -28.7% 44% -28.3%
20% -35.7% 36% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$217 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$1,367
Realized−$8,275
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses510 / 510
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$3,508
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1020 / 1032
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$254
Trades / day56.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1020 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 76¢ 74¢ $380 $368 −$12 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 44¢ 46¢ $223 $231 +$8 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 30¢ 30¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-2%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 18¢ 28¢ $90 $138 +$48 (+53%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 29¢ 26¢ $145 $132 −$12 (-9%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $117 $116 −$2 (-1%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 34¢ $52 $86 +$34 (+64%)
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $68 $78 +$10 (+15%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $42 $39 −$3 (-7%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $40 $32 −$8 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $335 +$164 +49%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $99 −$98 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $64 −$63 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $40 −$39 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $68 −$66 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $57 +$143 +250%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $168 −$165 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $45 +$153 +340%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $49 +$149 +303%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $402 +$597 +148%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $304 +$196 +64%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$169 +555%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $74 −$72 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $346 −$345 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $335 +$164 +49%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $264 +$236 +89%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $462 +$537 +116%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $350 +$149 +43%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $519 +$480 +92%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $309 −$305 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $636 −$193 -30%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 15 $88 −$88 -100%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $87 −$87 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $84 −$84 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $107 −$107 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $252 −$252 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 15 $114 −$114 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $187 −$187 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $284 +$215 +76%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $274 −$274 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $284 −$284 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $143 −$143 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $178 −$178 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 15 $350 −$350 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 15 $186 −$186 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $328 −$328 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $132 −$132 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 15 $199 −$199 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $499 16h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 39¢ $99 20h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 67¢ $67 22h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 67¢ $3 22h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 67¢ $3 22h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 67¢ $13 22h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 67¢ $36 22h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 67¢ $203 22h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 67¢ $9 22h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 29h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 30h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 30h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 30h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 30h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 30h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AN BUY 3¢ $51 30h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $64 30h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $40 30h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $68 30h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 33¢ $168 34h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $224 35h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $198 35h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $3 35h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $383 35h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 29¢ $148 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $111 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $40 35h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $107 38h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 38h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $198 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,367.06 · official $1,367.08 (match) · 3500 history records