Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:50:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba4c…d626 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 283d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%10W / 20L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% +$1
politics 28% $0
other 23% $0
sports 8% $0
tech 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 -5.1% -14.1% 33% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 9 -5.1% -14.1% 33% 0% -9.1%
all 30 -1.9% -11.2% 33% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 3% -9.4%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage283d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $44 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $44 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $40 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $2 −$1 -56%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $18 +$2 +9%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $3 $0 -10%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 25 $1 $0 -24%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $1 $0 +22%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 400 and 419 times September 5–12? Sep 08 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $44 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $44 3h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $6 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $13 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $6 12h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $13 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $43 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $44 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $19 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $19 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $44 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $44 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $23 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $17 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $11 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $11 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 48¢ $20 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 44¢ $18 24d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 182d
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $31 270d
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $31 272d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 272d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 272d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 272d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $29 272d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $29 272d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records