trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 17 | +10.0% | -0.5% | 65% | 47% | +4.0% |
| ≤30d | 26 | +10.4% | -0.1% | 65% | 42% | +0.6% |
| ≤90d | 26 | +10.4% | -0.1% | 65% | 42% | +0.6% |
| all | 26 | +10.4% | -0.1% | 65% | 42% | +0.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -0.1% | 42% | +0.6% |
| 10% | -9.7% | 27% | -9.0% |
| 15% | -18.4% | 15% | -17.8% |
| 20% | -26.4% | 15% | -25.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 69¢ | 92¢ | $267 | $360 | +$93 (+35%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 63¢ | 56¢ | $361 | $323 | −$38 (-11%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+4%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-10%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $126 | +$20 | +16% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $116 | +$10 | +8% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | Jun 18 | $145 | −$29 | -20% |
| Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 18 | $111 | +$27 | +24% |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $107 | +$11 | +10% |
| o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Jun 17 | $85 | $0 | -0% |
| Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $70 | +$7 | +9% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 17 | $36 | −$2 | -4% |
| Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $56 | +$11 | +20% |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 16 | $60 | +$16 | +27% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $37 | +$23 | +60% |
| Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $23 | +$14 | +58% |
| Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? | Jun 15 | $65 | −$42 | -64% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 14 | $405 | +$129 | +32% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 14 | $100 | +$65 | +65% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$7 | -70% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 12 | $120 | −$1 | -1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 11 | $200 | $0 | -0% |
| Ebola case in the US by June 30? | Jun 11 | $101 | +$12 | +12% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 07 | $18 | −$4 | -24% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 07 | $123 | +$13 | +10% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET | Jun 02 | $5 | +$5 | +93% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | Jun 02 | $131 | +$2 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 | Jun 01 | $87 | −$11 | -13% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 31 | $229 | +$25 | +11% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 30 | $209 | +$20 | +10% |