Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:44:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba45…87f3 other 224 markets active 0h ago coverage 1202d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,860 (+6%) realized +$10,334 · open −$1,474
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate55%123W / 102L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$649per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$307est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$18,631now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$218
7 days−$200
14 days−$194
30 days+$7,462
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% +$12,454
other 29% −$3,673
politics 21% −$1,960
world 10% −$163
crypto 1% −$253
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -55.3% -59.5% 22% 22% -70.3%
≤30d 23 +36.5% +23.5% 30% 26% +42.7%
≤90d 60 +2.3% -7.4% 43% 20% -7.3%
all 225 -9.0% -17.6% 55% 22% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 22% -3.3%
10% -25.5% 19% -12.5%
15% -32.7% 17% -21.0%
20% -39.3% 14% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -19% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$234 vs −$216 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1202d coverage
Net worth$18,631
Realized+$10,334
Unrealized−$1,474
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses123 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$307
Open positions10
Markets (closed)225 / 224
History coverage1202d
Avg bet$649
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 58¢ $8,352 $9,688 +$1,336 (+16%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 50¢ 42¢ $8,352 $7,015 −$1,336 (-16%)
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 95¢ 85¢ $952 $852 −$100 (-11%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $391 $394 +$3 (+1%)
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 92¢ 86¢ $363 $338 −$24 (-7%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $193 $194 +$2 (+1%)
Pacifica FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 93¢ 93¢ $124 $124 +$0 (+0%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-84%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$16 (-97%)
Tabi FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 81¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -101%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -101%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -101%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -101%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -101%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -101%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -101%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -101%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$14 +145%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $16 $0 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $7 +$5 +77%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $290 +$69 +24%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,000 −$889 -89%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $5 +$157 +3123%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $100 −$52 -52%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $11,180 +$8,372 +75%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 27 $7,976 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $630 −$630 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $10 $0 +4%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $781 −$781 -100%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House May 21 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $2 $0 +22%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $557 −$557 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BC.Game Esports (BO1) - CS Asia Champi May 20 $12 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 19 $2 +$2 +104%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 19 $23 +$1 +5%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 19 $3,130 −$3,130 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 18 $5,144 +$2,455 +48%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 09 $401 −$209 -52%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 09 $12 −$6 -46%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 28 $770 −$770 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 26 $3,439 −$129 -4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 21 $3,338 +$47 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 20 $1,147 −$1,147 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 18 $929 −$80 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 15 $1,294 +$37 +3%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Apr 14 $1,025 −$1,025 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 14 $18 +$2 +10%
Octra FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 13 $88 +$1 +1%
Penguins vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5 Apr 13 $554 −$554 -100%
Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5 Apr 12 $2 +$3 +108%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 10 $104 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 19m
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 40m
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $50 48m
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 1h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $17 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $207 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,631.08 · official $18,630.72 (match) · 2975 history records