Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba44…7d2c crypto 652 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$324 (+1%) realized +$344 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate63%412W / 238L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$958now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days+$322
14 days+$241
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$281
crypto 3% −$64
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -1.8% -11.2% 95% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 313 -55.1% -59.4% 41% 2% -9.4%
≤90d 650 -8.8% -17.5% 63% 28% -8.8%
all 650 -8.8% -17.5% 63% 28% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 28% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 24% -17.5%
15% -32.6% 21% -25.5%
20% -39.2% 19% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +36% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$958
Realized+$344
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses412 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)650 / 652
History coverage65d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 650 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? No 96¢ 94¢ $946 $926 −$21 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? No 97¢ 100¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $801 +$23 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $801 +$28 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $454 +$22 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 14? Jun 15 $653 +$26 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $72 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 15 $335 +$10 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $232 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 14 $619 +$22 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $802 +$31 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 13 $801 +$25 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 13 $223 +$11 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $751 +$22 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $65 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $801 +$29 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $130 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $32 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 12 $20 −$12 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $307 +$10 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $90 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $126 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $228 −$225 -99%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 11 $801 +$27 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 Jun 11 $39 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $145 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $346 +$12 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 10? Jun 10 $501 +$14 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $300 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $623 +$25 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $816 +$34 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $471 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $383 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $153 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1,225 +$87 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 9? Jun 10 $501 +$16 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 9? Jun 10 $501 +$16 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $501 +$24 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $148 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $501 +$16 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $83 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 08 $843 +$61 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $501 +$26 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $71 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $85 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $269 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $113 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $301 +$14 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $292 +$8 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $15 3m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $16 4m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $14 4m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $14 5m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $15 8m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $15 15m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $15 18m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $14 26m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $14 28m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $14 49m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $19 58m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $26 59m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $95 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $232 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $217 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $37 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $748 13h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $76 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $21 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $958.00 · official $958.00 (match) · 1868 history records